Brexit – a toss of the coin.

by LDeX Group | Jul 1, 2016 | Blog

Over the last few months we’ve heard many different versions of what Brexit could mean for the UK. Now that we’ve officially voted to leave the EU, are we any closer to finding out what the future holds for our country’s finances?

We asked our financial advisor, Carl Hilton, director of NOW Financial Planning, to cut through the noise and explain what the result could mean for the finance and wealth management sector, and consequently, for UK businesses.

Here’s what he had to say:

Several experts predict that little will change. Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, argued that the banks have been prepared for this referendum result, saying that: “Some market and economic volatility can be expected as the process unfolds. As a result of these actions, UK banks have raised over £130 billion of capital, and now have more than £600 billion of high quality liquid assets. Moreover, as a backstop, and to support the functioning of the markets, the Bank of England stands ready to provide more than £250 billion of additional funds through its normal facilities.”

However, Neil Woodford, of Woodford Investment Management, argued that Brexit will nevertheless result in a cloud of uncertainty over UK businesses, saying that: “We now face a period of uncertainty as the exact terms of Britain’s exit from Europe are negotiated”.

One consistent view is that Brexit will invariably have short-term consequences on the financial sector and UK businesses. Stuart Mitchell said: “It’s very difficult to know the implications at this point, but in the short-term, assets will be under a lot of pressure. The UK accounts for only around 6% of European exports and so, while there is likely to be some contagion, the impact on European growth is not obvious. The impact of the fall in sterling will be cushioned for investors with European holdings – as a European fund, you will lose less money. We are much more focused on core Europe than on the UK.”

Despite unavoidable short-term consequences for the financial sector and UK businesses, Neil Woodford argued that businesses generally will not feel a long-term impact following the referendum result. He said: “We [commissioned] an independent report on the economic implications of Brexit. It concluded that Britain’s long-term economic future would be largely unaffected by a decision to leave the European Union. We stand by these conclusions. In the near term it is likely UK GDP will be lower over the next 18 months or so than if we had voted to remain but in the longer term the trajectory of the UK economy, and more importantly the world economy, will not be influenced significantly by today’s outcome.”

Although the short-term consequences of the referendum result have already started to surface, a number of experts agree that businesses will not see many long-term effects. However, Britain’s vote to leave the EU brings with it uncertain times, which means that it is even more important for companies to keep up with trends in the finance sector in order to be successful.

EU Referendum – a waste of energy?

by LDeX Group | Jun 22, 2016 | Blog

Tomorrow will be a historic day in our country’s history as we vote in the EU Referendum.

With many arguments flying back and forth about what a Brexit means for numerous industries, we spoke to our energy consultant, Paul Keeley from Energy Serve, about the impact a leave vote would have on the energy industry. With energy prices having a direct effect on data centre operational costs, a Brexit could have a big impact on our market.

Here’s what he had to say:

“As with everything when it comes to Brexit, there is no easy and clear answer. A recent survey carried out by the Energy Institute found that 80% of respondents thought a Brexit would be bad for the energy industry.

“I also witnessed a negative response to leaving the EU on an industry webinar. The company hosting the event asked the question: ‘Do you think a Brexit would be good or bad for the UK energy industry?’ and the result closely mirrored that of the Energy Institute, with 75% saying they thought Brexit would be bad.

“However, putting meat on the bones on those results is much harder as there are just too many unknowns.

“With the UK energy market closely intertwined with the European market and with more interconnectors in the pipeline the biggest question is: ‘would a Brexit mean a withdrawal from the Energy Single Market (ESM)?’

“If we were to withdraw from the ESM, I only foresee it having a negative effect on the UK’s energy prices. Energy security is already tight in the UK and if access to the interconnectors was taken away it would push up prices – especially in the winter as we import both gas and electricity through the interconnectors during the colder months.

“Even if access was not revoked, I would expect trade levies to be imposed if we were trading outside the EU and the ESM, which would only push prices higher. There is a school of thought that says we can pull out of the EU but stay within the ESM, thereby avoiding the above problem, but nobody really knows if that is feasible.

“There also appears to be a large acceptance that Brexit will negatively affect the pound, the argument is just about by how much and for how long. But either way, a weak pound will make all of our imports, including energy, more expensive.

“There are some counter arguments though. Some believe that if we were released from European legislation we would be able to relax our renewables and carbon targets, however most of the costs of meeting those targets over the next five years (with the notable exception of Hinkley C) are now committed to contracts.

“So, the short answer is no one can predict the definite outcome, but the overwhelming opinion is that Brexit would be bad for overall energy prices.”

No matter which side of the fence you fall, make sure you vote.